Kodiak’s population has declined for about the last decade, according to census data. And for the most part, the Kodiak Island Borough School District has planned for about a 3% reduction in its student count from year to year.
But the shrinkage is hitting faster in recent years.
“We budgeted at a minus 3.5%, and we saw a solid 5% decline in our average daily membership for the month of October,” said Cyndy Mika, the district’s superintendent.
The district planned for 2,217 students to return to schools this fall. The count showed 24 fewer daily attendees than predicted.
It’s the second year in a row the district has faced that steep of a drop. Predictions for enrollment next year are due in early November, and Mika said she plans to tell the state’s Department of Education this is the new pattern going forward.
“Based on the numbers that we’re seeing, what we’re going to turn in to the state is a 5% drop,” the superintendent said.
That 5% decline is an adjusted number. The actual drop in student count in school hallways and classrooms was closer to 8% from last year to this year. However, the district saw a boost in kids using correspondence and homeschool programs compared to their expectations, which makes up some of the difference. The district initially predicted 185 correspondence students, but 238 signed up for programs.
The school district doesn’t receive full funding from the state to support correspondence students. But, it does receive about 90% of the funding they would if the students were in classrooms full-time, some of which is set aside to reimburse parents.
Rural school attendance in Kodiak’s villages largely came in as the district expected, except for Port Lions, which had eight more students than predicted, for a total of 30 students there.
The superintendent said that the budget for this year should still be okay and use up nearly all of the district’s fund balance, or reserves. However, without that cushion for next year, Mika is closely watching this year’s finances to have an accurate idea of how to plan going forward.
“Probably 90% of my day right now is spent on finances and the budget,” she said.
Some of her budget planning has also been interrupted by the federal government shutdown. Usually this time of year, federal officials help with an audit for the district’s insurance, which can give the district some money back, according to Mika.
She said any returns from insurance would help ahead of facing another potentially massive deficit this budget season.
