Dave O'Brien is straightforward about how the Trump administration's policies are affecting farmers.
"They're choking us. We are getting choked out here," he said. "This is not going to end well."
O'Brien has been growing corn and soybeans for 50 years in northern Illinois. He has voted for Republicans and Democrats in the past, but he's frustrated with the Republican Party in the Trump era.
Since the U.S. began bombing Iran, for example, restricted travel through the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted the flow of nitrogen fertilizer, sending the price spiraling upward. And that's on top of what farmers will spend filling up their fuel tanks.
"You and I go to the gas station, and we're shocked when we got to spend $36 to fill our darn tank up," he said, adding that farmers will be spending thousands on diesel. "Five-hundred gallons times $4 or $5 — there you go right there. It's just crazy."
Beyond those higher costs, deportations have thinned out the labor force for some farmers. Tariffs increased the prices of goods such as machinery and caused tensions with China. Those tensions aren't over: Last week, the Trump administration announced that a planned meeting with China, the United States' No. 1 soybean export market, would be delayed for weeks. That helped send soybean prices tumbling.
Joseph Glauber, a former Agriculture Department chief economist, says farm balance sheets aren't looking good.
"If you just look at the cash side of the business, in terms of what they receive for their crops and what they have to pay out, those margins have been tight and in some cases negative," he said.
And the challenges can build on each other. Nitrogen fertilizer, for example, is used on corn but not soybeans. So with corn-growing more expensive, farmers might change their planting decisions.
"Market analysts are thinking that maybe a million, million and a half, acres or more could switch from corn into soybeans, which, of course — that has also contributed to a lower soybean price," he said.
Unpredictable
Farming is always unpredictable. The weather, political developments in other countries — all sorts of things can make markets chaotic. But U.S. policy choices can make it much harder.
In the first Trump administration, for example, President Trump's tariffs led China to trade more with South America, importing more of that continent's soybeans in place of U.S. soy. That has persisted.
Trump seems to know farmers are hurting. He recently demanded in all capital letters on social media that Congress "PASS THE FARM BILL, NOW." And in a statement to NPR, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said, "Our farmers are moving into planting season, and the President is aware of these challenges. We are looking at every potential option to lower fertilizer prices."
The Agriculture Department also emphasized to NPR the assistance that the administration has given farmers. In December, it announced a $12 billion program designed to support farmers through "temporary trade market disruptions and increased production costs, "as the administration put it. Altogether, federal direct aid to farmers totaled more than $30 billion last year.
That helps, says Glauber, but the government can do only so much.
"You got to think that providing 20, 30 billion dollars in additional money to the [agriculture] sector is not something that's going to happen year in, year out," he said.
Persistent pain
Gary Wertish is president of the Minnesota Farmers Union. He also advised then-Sen. Mark Dayton, D-Minn., on agricultural issues in the 2000s and has farmed for decades. To him, Trump's subsidies look not just like assistance but a political gambit, as Trump tries to stay in farmers' good graces.
"It's not right for the U.S. taxpayer to keep bailing the farmers out, which obviously the farmers need it now. But we need policies that don't require bailouts," he said. "We need policies that the farmers get their money from the marketplace and not from the U.S. taxpayer."
David Oman, former co-chair of the Iowa Republican Party, agrees that's a fair assessment — that subsidies are also a political ploy on the part of Trump.
"I think it's the truth, if you want to look at it that way," he said. "And he isn't the only president or the only person from a particular party to have tried to do that."
And Oman agrees with Wertish that farmers may need the money now, but they'd prefer stability.
"Most farmers, if they level with you, would tell you they'd rather have certainty than uncertainty," Oman said. "Looking out one, two or three crop years, then they can really plan. Do they want to buy more acres? Do they want to make six-figure capital equipment purchases, things of that sort?"
He adds that if the pain persists for farmers, it could drag on the Republican Party in the midterms, including in Iowa.
"There still are a lot of people in the state and all over the Midwest and all over the country who remain loyal" to Trump, he said. "But that's being tested in different ways and at different times. And it's certainly being tested in the ag business economy sector right now."
The long view
Trump has encouraged farmers to take the long view, saying policies like tariffs are short-term pain for long-term gain. O'Brien is just one farmer of many, but he dislikes that logic.
"It bothers me, these statements about, 'Well, there's going to be a little hurt to be spread around, but that'll get better.' I, quite frankly, don't like that talk at all. Whether you're talking about farmers or veterans, that's almost an insult. But we're supposed to take it in the ribs, but 'I guarantee you'll get better.'"
He has two major worries about the future. One is for younger farmers. Cash flows are rough now, but land values are high, which makes O'Brien particularly worried about younger farmers being able to get into the business.
"I can withstand all the pressure in the world but, man, these young guys," he said. "I don't know. It makes me nervous."
His other worry is about the Iran war itself. O'Brien is a Vietnam veteran. And so he sees the conflict not only through the lens of his business but his military experience.
"It's so frustrating, you know? And now you tell me, where is this war going to end up?" he said. "This to me, this just smells like Vietnam 2.0. I'm telling you, this is going to not end well."
And whether it's Iran, tariffs or any other policy affecting farmers, the question is not just how it ends but when.
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