Alaska primaries are often sleepy affairs, but political pundits have lots to talk about this morning — a swirl of cliffhangers and upsets, that has already begun to reshape Alaska’s political landscape, even before November’s general election. For now it looks like Kodiak Sen.Gary Stevens might have been swept away in a tide of voter angst over the Permanent Fund Dividend and party loyalties.
But first, a warning from election officials – something they always say, that election night results are unofficial. But this time, they stress the final numbers could change a lot after absentee ballots are counted. In the wake of COVID-19, the state sent out a record number of mail-in absentee ballots.
That said: with 22 out of 23 precincts counted in Senate District P — a sprawling district that encompasses Kodiak, Homer, South Kenai, Cordova and Seldovia, Stevens is trailing in his bid to keep his senate seat, one that he’s held since 2003.
John Cox, Stevens’ challenger in the Republican primary, is leading with 1,403 votes – or about 51 percent. Stevens has almost 49 percent of the vote, with 1,334 votes. Cox has a mere 69 vote lead.
Cox, an Anchor Point store owner, campaigned hard on cutting state spending, while at the same time supporting a higher Permanent Fund Dividend, paid out under the traditional formula. At a recent campaign forum, he promised he would not hinder the work of the governor in distributing Permanent Fund Dividend checks.
Stevens emphasized the risk of overdrawing the Permanent Fund with a full PFD and the need to provide services that the people want.
Stevens was among eight incumbent Republican senators up for re-election. If last night’s vote stands, four senate leaders will have been voted out of office: Cathy Giessel, Natasha von Imhof, John Coghill and Gary Stevens.
Giessel, who serves as Senate President, appears to be losing her Anchorage seat by more than a two-to-one margin. With 100 percent of the precincts reporting, Giessel had only 1,010 votes, or about 28 percent. Her Republican challenger, Roger Holland amassed 2,586 votes, almost 72 percent of the total.
Natasha von Imhof of Anchorage is co-chair of the Senate Finance Committee. Her opponent, Stephen Duplantis, leads with 51 percent of the vote. He has a narrow lead 69 vote lead: 1,351 to von Imhof’s 1,266.
John Coghill of Fairbanks has held powerful leadership roles over the years. Currently he’s the Senate Majority Leader, a position he’s held since 2013. His challenger, Robert Myers, Jr., has a 126 vote lead.
Gary Stevens, along with three other incumbents who may be ousted, have been perceived as moderate Republicans.
On the House side, moderate Republican incumbents are also struggling, especially those who joined the House Majority Coalition made up of Democrats and Republicans.
Rep. Steve Thompson of Fairbanks maintains a 13 vote lead over Dave Selle.
Anchorage Rep. Chuck Kopp is losing his primary race by a two-to-one margin. His opponent Tom McKay has 1,202 votes compared to Kopp’s 601.
Another member of the House Majority, Jennifer Johnston, only has about a quarter of the vote. James Kaufman has 1,625 votes compared to Johnston’s 600.
The House District 30 race in the Republican primary was another race to watch. That was Gary Knopp’s seat. Despite being killed in a plane crash last month, he received 258 votes, or about 14 percent of the vote. Ronald Gillham is leading with about 61 percent of the vote.
Anchorage Rep. Gabrielle LaDoux is losing her race to David Nelson by four-to-one margin. LaDoux once represented Kodiak in the legislature. Her upset is likely tied to charges of voter misconduct that allegedly occurred in a past election cycle.
Rep. Mark Neuman of Big Lake is losing to Kevin McCabe, with only 37 percent of the vote.
There’s also a House Democrat in a cliff-hanger. Rep. Neal Foster of Nome has a 62 vote lead over Tyler Ivanoff.
Kodiak Rep.Louise Stutes, a Republican, ran unopposed. Currently she’s part of the House Majority coalition. One of the biggest questions in the coming months will be whether that coalition will remain intact.
Republican voters clearly punished those lawmakers who joined the Democrats to form a majority coalition.
So how will it shake down? The first count for mail-in absentee ballots takes place on August 25, In the Sen. Gary Stevens’ race, those votes could potentially change the outcome.
Port Lions was one of about a half dozen communities in which the only option on election day was absentee in-person voting, due to the shortage of election workers.
The next round of counting is August 28 with results certified on August 30,
